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Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

Simulate macroeconomic scenarios, adjust inflation, and discover how much BTC you need to retire safely.

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Settings

R$ 0,00🔄
1 BRL ≈ ... sats
R$
₿
Mensal|Anual
₿

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Macro Events

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Strong ETF InflowsBULL

Persistent institutional and fund capital inflow.

✓
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Regulatory ClarityBULL

Clear rules for custody and taxes.

✓
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Sovereign AdoptionBULL

Central banks add BTC to reserves.

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Sustainable MiningBULL

Energy integration and network security.

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Global LiquidityBULL

Falling real rates and monetary expansion.

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Tight LiquidityBEAR

High rates and quantitative tightening (QT).

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Hostile RegulationBEAR

Access restrictions or aggressive KYC.

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Global RecessionBEAR

Demand shock and deflation.

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Protocol FailureBEAR

Critical bug or loss of technical confidence.

Bitcoin Retirement Calculator — How it Works?

The Bitcoin Retirement Calculator projects how much BTC you need to accumulate to ensure a safe monthly income in the future. It combines macroeconomic Bitcoin price trajectories, Base, Bull, and Bear scenarios, inflation, life expectancy, and your monthly BTC or sats contribution.

By entering your age, retirement age, desired income, inflation, and safe withdrawal rate (SWR), the model calculates:

  • BTC accumulated by retirement
  • Nominal wealth value in each scenario
  • Estimated monthly income, adjusted for inflation
  • Comparison with your income goal
  • Year-by-year projection (chart and table)
  • Impact of macro events (ETFs, liquidity, regulation, recession, etc.)

The goal is to show, in a clear and audit-ready way, your potential future purchasing power using Bitcoin as a long-term asset.

What to expect from results

The scenarios display three possible trajectories:

  • Base – neutral projection
  • Bull – accelerated adoption
  • Bear – adverse environment

The report shows:

  • Final wealth in BTC and your currency
  • Estimated monthly income by 4% rule and Equal Slices method
  • Whether your financial goal is met
  • A clear chart of your wealth evolution up to age 90

You see exactly how much BTC you need to accumulate to live safely — and how different macroeconomic conditions can affect your plans.

Important Disclaimer

This calculator is an educational financial planning tool and does not constitute investment advice, financial consulting, or a guarantee of future results.

Bitcoin is a volatile asset and all scenarios are hypothetical simulations. Always review your decisions with a qualified professional and practice good self-custody by storing BTC securely.

📌 Model Notes and Anchors

This calculator combines a transparent price trajectory model with macroeconomic toggles and two retirement spending methods. Everything below is editable and designed to be easy to audit.

This tool is for scenario planning; it is not investment advice. Edit parameters to reflect your own view.

Price Trajectory Formula

The anchor ranges in 2028, 2033, 2040, 2050, and 2075 for Base, Bull, and Bear represent directional midpoints based on widely discussed scenarios (ETF adoption, regulatory clarity, reserve diversification, miner economics).

Logarithmic interpolation: we calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between adjacent anchors and project to your retirement year.

CAGR = (Pt2 / Pt1)^(1/(t2−t1)) − 1
Pret = Pt1 · (1 + CAGR)^(ret−t1)

Macro Toggle Logic

Macro multipliers apply multiplicative adjustments per scenario. Example: if Base scenario has +10% ETF flows and -15% tight liquidity, the net multiplier is 1.10 × 0.85 = 0.935.

  • Strong ETF inflows: lifts Base/Bull more than Bear.
  • Regulatory clarity: reduces tail risk (Bear).
  • Sovereign Reserves: symbolic but powerful adoption (Bull).
  • Energy and Mining: reduces operational risk.
  • Global Liquidity: correlation with risk assets.

Current Anchors (USD)

  • 2028: Base $225k, Bull $450k, Bear $115k
  • 2033: Base $425k, Bull $1.05M, Bear $185k
  • 2040: Base $800k, Bull $3.25M, Bear $350k
  • 2050: Base $1.9M, Bull $10M, Bear $650k
  • 2075: Base $3M, Bull $30M, Bear $550k

Portfolio Math

BTC at retirement = Current BTC + (Annual Buys × Years).

Portfolio = Final BTC × Scenario Price.

*All spending values are brought to Present Value (discounted by inflation) to reflect today's purchasing power.

📚 Sources and Further Reading